Thursday, August 2, 2012

Analysis of recent winning trade

I am going analyze a recent winning trade I completed. This was my first time using the "cup and handle" pattern and would like to discuss the technical aspects of it. As you can see below is a weekly chart of   Western Refinery (WNR)





Lead up: A large run up from a strong base that ended at the end of 2010. It can also be argued to start the run up from June 2011. Either way you measure it you get a 40%+ increase in price coinciding with an  increase in volume while showing strong relative strength.

Formation: Cup formed beginning in August of 2011 and ended in March 2012. Volume spiked at bottom of cup, a strong indicator. The handle began March 2012 and ended June 2012. Stayed consistently above weekly moving average 50 and showed a decrease in volume. Moreover, stayed nicely in the upper half of the cup. The high point of the handle was $20.95, signifying the pivot point.

Entry/Exit Point: I defined an entry point when as $20.95, where a candlestick meets and surpasses the high point of the handle. This occurred on a day with an 80% spike in volume from the daily volume moving average 50 further confirming the break out. Still not use to trading this pattern I took the advice from others and went for a 20% increase in price, making the exit point $25.14.

Warning Signs: Three things troubled me about this pattern. Firstly, the cup formation was not very smooth and round, but rather spiky and more volatile then I would have liked. Next from peak of cup to the bottom was nearly and 80% decline, much greater then a favorable 12%-33% decline. Lastly, the market had considerable volatility at the time, but WNR did mitigate this with considerable relative strength.




Final Thoughts: This trade turned out to be very successful., with me taking my 20% profits soundly. At the beginning of July, I thought a potential bull flag had formed in the rally and was tempted to extend my exit point. Fortunately, I stayed disciplined to my rules and got out right before what looks like a distribution day. Fundamentally Western Refinery is a downstream oil company which benefits from low oil prices, which can be attributed to why it did well. During this same time frame oil (WTI) had fallen from above $100 a barrel to under $80.

No comments:

Post a Comment