Saturday, August 11, 2012

A Look at BRIC

The BRIC countries receive a lot of hype for being top international investments. I want to take a technical look to see how they are currently doing.



S&P 500 (for reference)

Brazil:


Firstly, none of these four countries have been performing anywhere near as well as the United States market. Currently Brazil is more than 50% below its 2010 highs. Long term it has been trending downwards, but seems to have found support around the $49.00 level, the 2011 lows. If its current rally continues, I would look at the moving average 200 and the downward sloping trend line I drew as resistance.



Russia:



 Russia has a pretty similar pattern as Brazil, except it peaked in 2011. It found support at about the $23.30 level. It has short term resistance at the moving average 200, and if it can get through that I would look at the $33.85 level for the next significant level of resistance. From the two lines I drew, Russia can possibly be in a long term sideways trading pattern.


India:


India is also currently in a long term downtrend. It found support at the $15.50 level, and its short term resistance is the moving average 200. Like Russia it can possibly be in a long term sideways trading range with resistance at $21.70.


China:


China is the country whose pattern deviates the most from the rest of the BRIC countries. It is the only one that did not fall to its 2011 lows this year, but instead showed better relative strength compared to the other three. While China's GDP is at a much better rate compared to the United States, its market performance is lagging like everyone else's. China's short term resistance is at the moving average 200 then after that faces significant resistance at $40.50.


Final Thoughts: I would not say any of these countries are currently in sustained up trends. All of them firstly need to break their moving average 200's and get through the other resistance I outlined. I think there is a strong chance that all of them are basing out, after being in a downtrend for a while now.

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