Technical Analysis Review for the Week Starting 4/27/15

Key Points:

• S&P 500 testing all-time highs

• Advance-Decline line at all-time highs

• Nasdaq broke out to relative highs and is close to all time high

• Bonds broke support

• Europe at YTD highs

S&P 500 Daily:

 



The S&P 500  is currently testing all-time highs. With the Advance-Decline line at all-time highs it is expected that the S&P 500 will break through to all time highs and continue its uptrend. The danger here is a pullback to trap the people going long the breakout to all-time highs.

 

Nasdaq Daily:

 

 

The Nasdaq broke out to relative highs and is currently very close to all-time highs from 2000. It is expected that the Nasdaq will test all-time highs at a minimum.

 

 

Russell 2000 Daily:

 

 

 

The Russell 2000 which was briefly leading recently, lost that status in the last week. With it being very close to all-time highs, a lot of significant should not be placed on its lost leadership status.

 

NYSE Advance-Decline Line:

 

 

The Advance-Decline Line made another all-time high this week. Due to its leadership status, it is expected that the general indices will follow.

 

TLT Daily:

 

 

The bonds broke through its multi-week support with conviction last week. It is currently testing its breakdown point and it is expected that bonds will continue down.

 

WTI Daily:

 

 

WTI has been consolidating since its recent breakout from resistance. Due to its recent multi-month breakout, it is expected that WTI will continue up through the recent consolidation.

 

 

VGK Daily:

 

 

Europe YTD has been acting very strongly. It is currently up ~13%. With its recent breakout through its consolidation, it is expected that it will continue its uptrend.



Technical Analysis Review for the Week Starting 4/20/15

Key Points

·         S&P 500 stayed within its intermediate range despite the sharp down day Friday

·         Global equity markets had a sharp down day along with the US markets

·         Bonds remain in its short-term range

·         Oil broke through major resistance

S&P 500 (Daily):

 

While last week my expectation was for the S&P 500 to test its all-time highs, it was unable to reach that level. With Friday’s sharp down day the S&P 500 fell back to the middle of its range. The index did close under its 50 day MA. Since price is currently in the middle of its range, closing under its 50 day MA should be taken lightly.

 

S&P 500 (Weekly):

 



 

 

The range the S&P 500 is in can be seen clearly on a weekly basis.

 

Russell 2000 (Daily):

 

The Russell 2000 briefly made an all-time high last week. Unfortunately with the sharp down day across most equity markets Friday the Russell 2000, like the S&P 500, is back within its intermediate term range.

 

TLT (Daily):

 

Bonds remains in its short term range that was noted last week. A break of this range will be indicative of the next direction bonds will take.

 

WTI (Daily):

 

 

The most interesting market last week was oil. It broke through its multi-month resistance and looks like it is starting a new uptrend. Whether this break will turn into a new primary trend is yet to be determined. In the short term oil is consolidating and is potentially forming a bull flag or pennant. A break of $57.42 is a bullish sign.

 

 

Technical Analysis Review for the week starting 4/13/15

S&P 500 - Daily:

 

The S&P 500 broke out of the small consolidation it had been in during the last week and looks to be headed back to all-time highs. It currently has resistance at the 78.6% retracement (note the Fibonacci grid on the chart is inverted and shows it as 23.6% retracement), but if it breaks through this it is suggestive that it should retest the all-time highs at a minimum.

S&P 500 – Weekly:

 

On a weekly basis the S&P 500 is still in a consolidation between 2,119.95 and 2,043.82 as annotated on the chart. A break in either direction would be indicative of where the trend will next move. Since the primary trend is still up, it is expected that the S&P 500 will continue to new highs.

NASDAQ (Daily):

 

The NASDAQ, like the S&P 500, has resistance at the 78.6% retracement. A break of this is indicative that the NASDAQ will reach new highs again.

NASDAQ (Monthly):

 

On a monthly basis the NASDAQ is pausing right under all-time highs from 2000. If the broad market continues higher it would be expected that the NASDAQ retests the all-time highs (5,132.52).

Russell 2000:

Of the major equity indices the Russell 2000, small cap index, is in a leadership position. The Russell 2000 leading is a positive sign for the strength of the overall stock market.

Russell 2000 (Weekly Index):

 

On a weekly basis the Russell 2000 has broken through major resistance at 1,214.77. For most of 2014 the Russell 2000 was consolidating below that resistance. It would not be a surprise if the Russell 2000 was to pullback and retest the former resistance level (now support).

 

NYSE Advance-Decline Line:

 

A significant positive for the overall stock market is that the AD line is again at all-time highs leading the major indices. This is suggestive that most of the major indices should reach new highs in the near future.

TLT (Daily):

Bonds, as measured by TLT, are currently consolidating on a daily basis ($132.79 = resistance; $129.16 = support). A break of the consolidation shown above will be indicative of the next move Bonds will take.

WTI (Daily):

WTI may have made a WTI under resistance at $54.18. A break above this resistance would be suggestive that oil has entered a new uptrend at least in the short-term.

VGK (Daily):

 

 

Europe, as measured by VGK, has had a very strong 2015, rising over 10% YTD. It recently broke its 200 day MA and it is consolidating right above it. A break above the current consolidation can lead to a strong upward move for Europe.

 

VGK (Weekly):

 

 

On a weekly basis Europe formed a double bottom on its 200 day MA and is currently consolidating below resistance at the 50 day MA.

FXI (Daily)

 

China, as measured by FXI, had a parabolic up move last week. After such a strong upwards move a consolidation is expected.

FXI (Weekly)

 

On a weekly basis, China’s recent strong up move broke through multi-year resistance. This is very positive sign for China, and potentially a sign of a new primary trend.