Technical Analysis Review 6/8/15

Key Points:

• Major indices remain range bound

• Bonds broke down from short-term range

• Europe broke down key support last week

• Internals are showing weakness.

S&P 500 (Daily):

The S&P 500 remains in its multi-month range. On Friday it formed a potential reversal candle near the ascending support. As such, a reversal can be expected early in the week.


TLT (Daily):

Bonds closed right under key support. If it stay below this level then one should expect the downtrend to continue.

TLT (Weekly):

On a weekly basis bonds are testing its 200 DMA. If a reversal candle forms on this level then one can expect a reversal.


VGK (Daily):

Europe broke down last week. One should expect Europe to test its 200 DMA.

NYAD (Daily):

The New York Advance Decline Line broke through its recent swing low last week. This deteriorating internal indicator is a minor warning signal in the bull market.

JNK (Daily):

JNK broke down from its channel last week. One should expect JNK to test its 200 DMA.

Technical Analysis Review 5/25/15

Key Points:

• S&P 500 is in a short-term consolidation above major support

• TLT is consolidating under resistance

• Oil is in a short-term consolidation

• US Dollar breaks above resistance

• Euro breaks through support

S&P 500 (Daily):

 

S&P 500 broke above major resistance last week. It is currently in a short-term consolidation and it is expected the uptrend will continue.

 

TLT (Daily):

 

 

Bonds have broken multiple support lines and is currently in a short term consolidation. It is expected that the downtrend will continue.

 

 

WTI (Daily):

 

 

Oil is in a currently in a short-term consolidation. It is expected the uptrend will continue.

 

US Dollar (Weekly):

 

 

After breaking major support, the US Dollar broke again above it. A trader should target the recent highs but be wary that a head and shoulders pattern may develop.

Euro/USD (Daily):

After breaking up from a double bottom, the Euro broke down through support. The recent swing low should be the target.

FXI (Daily):

 

 

China is current in a intermediate consolidation. It would be expected that the uptrend will continue.

Technical Analysis Review for the Week Starting 5/18/15

Key Points:

• Major equity indices remain in multi-month range

• Oil remains in short term range

• Europe continues uptrend

• US Dollar breaks support

S&P 500 (Daily):

 

The S&P 500 remains in its multi-month range. A close at new highs would be indicative that a new uptrend will start.

 

WTI Daily:

 

 

Oil remains in a short-term range between approximately $59.00 and $62.00. Due to the recent uptrend it would be expected the break of this range would be to the upside.

 

VGK (Daily):

 

 

Europe remains one of the best performing markets YTD. After breaking its recent consolidation, the uptrend is still in full force.

 

US Dollar (Weekly):

 

 

 

The US dollar broke through its recent support last week. It is expected the US dollar has further downside.

Technical Analysis Review for the Week Starting 5/11/15

Key Points:

• Major US equity markets remains range bound

• Bonds are giving mixed signals

• Oil is retesting short term support

• US Dollar is sitting on resistance

S&P 500 (Daily):

 

The S&P 500 broke down early in the week but recovered at the end of the week. If the index can close at new highs then one should expect the uptrend to continue.

 

 

TLT (Daily):

 

 

TLT has two significant support/resistance points on the chart. One is annotated by the trend line and the other one is the 200 day MA. Price is currently between the two giving mixed signals.



WTI (Daily):

 

WTI broke through its short term resistance. It is currently retesting its breakout point and the uptrend is expected to continue.

 

 

US Dollar (Weekly):

 

 

 

The US Dollar currently has support on its 20 day EMA. If the dollar gets a bounce off of support it would be expected that the US dollar would retest its highs.

Technical Analysis Review for the Week Starting 5/4/15

Key Points:

• Major equity markets pulled back from recent highs

• Bonds continue downtrend

• US Dollar breaks down from minor support

• Oil breaks through short-term resistance

S&P 500 Daily:

 

The S&P 500 briefly tagged a new high then pulled back. On Thursday it briefly broke through its short-term uptrend but recovered above it Friday. It is now back into a trading range.

 

Russell 2000 Daily:

 

 

Small caps were the hardest hit last week. Unlike the S&P, Dow, and NASDAQ, the Russell 2000 closed below its 50 day moving average.

 

TLT Daily:

 

 

Bonds continued its decline last week after breaking support. It currently has support at its 200 day MA and the noted trend line.

 

US Dollar:

 

 

The US Dollar continued its downtrend after breaking through its recent consolidation. It is currently testing its support at ~$95.

 

WTI Daily:

 

 

Oil broke through its recent resistance at $58.68 last week. It is expected the recent uptrend will continue.

 

VGK Daily:

 

 

Europe (un-hedged) broke through resistance two weeks ago and it is currently retesting its breakout point. Its anticipated that the uptrend will continue.

 

HEDJ Daily:

 

 

Europe, on a hedged basis, has shown a very impressive YTD performance. It is currently up ~21%.

 



Technical Analysis Review for the Week Starting 4/27/15

Key Points:

• S&P 500 testing all-time highs

• Advance-Decline line at all-time highs

• Nasdaq broke out to relative highs and is close to all time high

• Bonds broke support

• Europe at YTD highs

S&P 500 Daily:

 



The S&P 500  is currently testing all-time highs. With the Advance-Decline line at all-time highs it is expected that the S&P 500 will break through to all time highs and continue its uptrend. The danger here is a pullback to trap the people going long the breakout to all-time highs.

 

Nasdaq Daily:

 

 

The Nasdaq broke out to relative highs and is currently very close to all-time highs from 2000. It is expected that the Nasdaq will test all-time highs at a minimum.

 

 

Russell 2000 Daily:

 

 

 

The Russell 2000 which was briefly leading recently, lost that status in the last week. With it being very close to all-time highs, a lot of significant should not be placed on its lost leadership status.

 

NYSE Advance-Decline Line:

 

 

The Advance-Decline Line made another all-time high this week. Due to its leadership status, it is expected that the general indices will follow.

 

TLT Daily:

 

 

The bonds broke through its multi-week support with conviction last week. It is currently testing its breakdown point and it is expected that bonds will continue down.

 

WTI Daily:

 

 

WTI has been consolidating since its recent breakout from resistance. Due to its recent multi-month breakout, it is expected that WTI will continue up through the recent consolidation.

 

 

VGK Daily:

 

 

Europe YTD has been acting very strongly. It is currently up ~13%. With its recent breakout through its consolidation, it is expected that it will continue its uptrend.



Technical Analysis Review for the Week Starting 4/20/15

Key Points

·         S&P 500 stayed within its intermediate range despite the sharp down day Friday

·         Global equity markets had a sharp down day along with the US markets

·         Bonds remain in its short-term range

·         Oil broke through major resistance

S&P 500 (Daily):

 

While last week my expectation was for the S&P 500 to test its all-time highs, it was unable to reach that level. With Friday’s sharp down day the S&P 500 fell back to the middle of its range. The index did close under its 50 day MA. Since price is currently in the middle of its range, closing under its 50 day MA should be taken lightly.

 

S&P 500 (Weekly):

 



 

 

The range the S&P 500 is in can be seen clearly on a weekly basis.

 

Russell 2000 (Daily):

 

The Russell 2000 briefly made an all-time high last week. Unfortunately with the sharp down day across most equity markets Friday the Russell 2000, like the S&P 500, is back within its intermediate term range.

 

TLT (Daily):

 

Bonds remains in its short term range that was noted last week. A break of this range will be indicative of the next direction bonds will take.

 

WTI (Daily):

 

 

The most interesting market last week was oil. It broke through its multi-month resistance and looks like it is starting a new uptrend. Whether this break will turn into a new primary trend is yet to be determined. In the short term oil is consolidating and is potentially forming a bull flag or pennant. A break of $57.42 is a bullish sign.

 

 

Technical Analysis Review for the week starting 4/13/15

S&P 500 - Daily:

 

The S&P 500 broke out of the small consolidation it had been in during the last week and looks to be headed back to all-time highs. It currently has resistance at the 78.6% retracement (note the Fibonacci grid on the chart is inverted and shows it as 23.6% retracement), but if it breaks through this it is suggestive that it should retest the all-time highs at a minimum.

S&P 500 – Weekly:

 

On a weekly basis the S&P 500 is still in a consolidation between 2,119.95 and 2,043.82 as annotated on the chart. A break in either direction would be indicative of where the trend will next move. Since the primary trend is still up, it is expected that the S&P 500 will continue to new highs.

NASDAQ (Daily):

 

The NASDAQ, like the S&P 500, has resistance at the 78.6% retracement. A break of this is indicative that the NASDAQ will reach new highs again.

NASDAQ (Monthly):

 

On a monthly basis the NASDAQ is pausing right under all-time highs from 2000. If the broad market continues higher it would be expected that the NASDAQ retests the all-time highs (5,132.52).

Russell 2000:

Of the major equity indices the Russell 2000, small cap index, is in a leadership position. The Russell 2000 leading is a positive sign for the strength of the overall stock market.

Russell 2000 (Weekly Index):

 

On a weekly basis the Russell 2000 has broken through major resistance at 1,214.77. For most of 2014 the Russell 2000 was consolidating below that resistance. It would not be a surprise if the Russell 2000 was to pullback and retest the former resistance level (now support).

 

NYSE Advance-Decline Line:

 

A significant positive for the overall stock market is that the AD line is again at all-time highs leading the major indices. This is suggestive that most of the major indices should reach new highs in the near future.

TLT (Daily):

Bonds, as measured by TLT, are currently consolidating on a daily basis ($132.79 = resistance; $129.16 = support). A break of the consolidation shown above will be indicative of the next move Bonds will take.

WTI (Daily):

WTI may have made a WTI under resistance at $54.18. A break above this resistance would be suggestive that oil has entered a new uptrend at least in the short-term.

VGK (Daily):

 

 

Europe, as measured by VGK, has had a very strong 2015, rising over 10% YTD. It recently broke its 200 day MA and it is consolidating right above it. A break above the current consolidation can lead to a strong upward move for Europe.

 

VGK (Weekly):

 

 

On a weekly basis Europe formed a double bottom on its 200 day MA and is currently consolidating below resistance at the 50 day MA.

FXI (Daily)

 

China, as measured by FXI, had a parabolic up move last week. After such a strong upwards move a consolidation is expected.

FXI (Weekly)

 

On a weekly basis, China’s recent strong up move broke through multi-year resistance. This is very positive sign for China, and potentially a sign of a new primary trend.